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Two days remaining.

England's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived challenge of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The issue in {day-night matches|