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When the Russian President visited the South Asian nation four years ago, the global landscape was markedly different. The brief visit, curtailed by the global health crisis, focused on talks on economic and military ties between the two leaders.

Months later, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine would transform the Russian leader into a global pariah, greatly limiting his diplomatic travel.

Furthermore, that era preceded a major change in ties between Washington and Delhi, marked by contentious statements and the imposition of substantial trade tariffs.

"In this context, the importance of this diplomatic mission to engage with the Indian PM cannot be overstated, serving as a symbol of enduring ties and a rejection of external pressure," analysts note.

A Pivotal Moment for Both Nations

The summit occurs at a delicate moment. President Putin comes after rejecting recent diplomatic initiatives for Ukraine, confident due to reported advances by Russian forces.

"For Russia, the key significance of this visit is its simple happening," commented a senior researcher based in Moscow. "It indicates a movement toward something resembling routine global diplomacy."

From Delhi's standpoint, the stakes are even higher. The country faces a difficult international environment, characterized by a semi-isolationist United States, a diminished Russia, and an assertive China.

This delicate balance was underscored just before the visit, when senior Western diplomats released a public commentary criticizing Russia's commitment to peace. This elicited a firm rebuke from Indian officials, who called it an inappropriate interference.

The Enduring Challenge from the North

The historical partnership dates back to the Soviet period and is deeply entrenched, with Moscow long being Delhi's top defense supplier. This relationship was largely tolerated by the West before a change in approach.

For years, Western nations ignored India's substantial purchases of discounted Russian oil. However, in the wake of failed peace efforts, pressure increased, leading to punitive tariffs and a significant downturn in US-India ties.

"In response, India has returned to its default strategy of maintaining multiple options," noted a foreign policy expert. "This demonstrates to the US that it has alternatives and is waiting to see how the global dynamics settle."

Beyond global diplomacy, India's fundamental concern with Russia is its strategic location. "China continues to be the greatest threat to India, and for decades, India has relied on Russia as a counterweight against China," the analyst stated.

The deepening partnership between Russia and China has raised alarms in Delhi, leading to efforts to prevent an unbreakable bond between its northern neighbor and its longtime partner.

This apprehension has also accelerated India's drive to reduce its defense procurement, shrinking its reliance on Russian equipment from a dominant share to a reduced portion in recent years.

"Delhi will try to find a middle ground: buy sufficient Russian weaponry to keep the partnership alive, but not become overly reliant that a supply disruption would leave it vulnerable," the analyst remarked.

Energy and Economic Ties

Increased economic cooperation is expected to be a key agenda item. President Putin has publicly emphasized plans to elevate cooperation with India to a "qualitatively new level", in spite of Western sanctions.

The matter of crude oil purchases is central. Although the Indian government has vowed to keep buying Russian oil, recent restrictions have slowed activity from the private sector. At the same time, India has agreed to boost imports of US energy.

A Kremlin spokesperson admitted "obstacles" in economic cooperation but insisted it would continue uninterrupted. The official downplayed the effect of sanctions, stating they would cause only "insignificant" and "temporary" disruptions and that Russia possesses the "technology" to bypass such measures.

Diplomatic Constraints

As talks proceed, the topic of Ukraine is likely to be mentioned mainly through India's consistent appeal for dialogue and peace.

"While the Indian leader has access to all parties, India lacks the necessary leverage to significantly influence the war," the analyst said. "Aside from encouraging talks, its ability to make a difference is constrained."

In the end, despite the visible friendship between the two leaders, the relationship is at its core one of "pure realpolitik," driven by national interest in a volatile world.